Tournament Variance Calculator
See how multi-table tournament (MTT) profit scales with ROI and volume—and why even winning players face long, brutal downswings. This tool combines a simple expected-profit line with a rough volatility band so you can reason about swings in dollars, not just intuition.
Enter your long-run ROI estimate, buy-in, number of tournaments in the sample, and an approximate standard deviation per tournament measured in buy-ins. The calculator reports expected profit and a heuristic 95% band (±1.96σ). It does not replace tracking software or ICM tools; it helps you visualize orders of magnitude.
MTT Profit & Volatility Estimate
σ per tournament captures how wide one MTT result is in buy-in units (bigger fields → often higher σ).
Adjust inputs to update expected profit and the rough 95% band.
Table of Contents
How to Use This Calculator
Enter expected ROI %, buy-in, sample size (tournaments), and a heuristic σ per tournament in buy-in units. The tool estimates expected profit and a rough 95% profit band.
ROI%
Long-run expectation—field and format specific.
σ per MTT
Large-field MTTs have huge per-event variance—your estimate might range from single digits to 20+ buy-ins.
ICM caveat
True final-table variance needs ICM modeling—this is a coarse heuristic.
Compare cash
Use cash variance for ring-game σ.
MTT Swings
MTT profit variance scales roughly with √(n) tournaments times per-tournament σ in dollars (σBI × buy-in).
Examples
Example 1 — Defaults
ROI 25%, BI $22, n = 100, σ = 12 BI—check expected profit and band in the UI.
Example 2 — Small sample
n = 20 keeps uncertainty enormous even with positive ROI.
Example 3 — Lower σ assumption
Tighter structures (PKOs vs huge fields) change σ—sensitivity-test inputs.
Frequently Asked Questions
No—explicitly noted in-tool. Use specialized ICM software for final tables.
Not used—poker MTT inputs only.
Lets you translate field size and payout structure into a single knob when detailed sims are unavailable.
Include whatever you consider part of long-run expectation—be consistent.
Payout structures differ—adjust σ and ROI for satellite variance.
