Matched Betting Calculator
Rough EV of a sign-up or reload offer.
Enter qualifier loss, free bet size, and your typical conversion rate at back/lay or free-play odds.
Matched Betting Calculator
Adjust inputs to see updated results.
Table of Contents
How to Use This Calculator
Enter expected qualifier loss (cash you give up securing the free bet), free bet size, and your estimated conversion rate (0–1) for that free bet into cash-equivalent value.
Qualifier loss
Net cost of the hedge or mug bet needed to unlock the promo.
Free bet size
Face value of the reward token.
Conversion rate
How much cash EV you expect per dollar of free bet—use SNR math or historical promos.
Read net EV
Output is rough EV before time cost—subtract your hourly rate if you like.
Qualifier + Free Bet EV
Net EV ≈ free × conversion − qualifier loss
Examples
Example 1 — Defaults
Loss $5, free bet $100, conversion 0.78 → EV ≈ $73 before time cost.
Example 2 — Tighter promo
Qualifier −$12, free $50, conversion 0.70 → EV ≈ $23.
Example 3 — Skip the promo
If conversion × free is smaller than qualifier loss, the EV turns negative—pass unless you want the entertainment.
Frequently Asked Questions
No—bake fees into qualifier loss and conversion assumptions.
Typical SNR conversions often land ~0.70–0.85 depending on odds and liquidity—track your own history.
Jurisdiction-dependent; books may limit accounts. This page is educational.
Your labor to place hedges has opportunity cost—subtract mentally.
Not entered here—conversion rate should already reflect the odds you will use.
