Card Booking Calculator
Model booking totals from an expected card rate.
Enter lambda for cards and optional line for over probability.
Card Betting Calculator
Adjust inputs to see updated results.
Table of Contents
How to Use This Calculator
Enter lambda (expected cards or booking points, depending on how you scale) and the total line. P(over) uses the shared Poisson routine—think of λ as your projected average for the counting process you price.
Referee and tempo
Card markets swing on official strictness and match intensity—adjust λ aggressively.
Yellow vs points
Some books use weighted booking points—keep units consistent with the line you bet.
Red cards
Rare huge jumps aren’t captured well by simple Poisson—treat as baseline only.
Compare to market
Convert probabilities to fair odds and compare to posted prices.
Booking Points Model
Cards and disciplinary points are overdispersed versus pure Poisson, but the Poisson skeleton still helps benchmark totals quickly.
Examples
Example 1 — Derby λ lift
λ = 5.5 booking points vs line 4.5—evaluate P(over) against the book’s implied price.
Example 2 — Friendly vs league
Friendlies may collapse λ—don’t copy league averages blindly.
Example 3 — Same engine
Numeric results match Poisson for identical inputs.
Frequently Asked Questions
Not on-input—output is probability.
Those lines need player-specific λ—this is an aggregate counter demo.
Changes rescind/add cards—models based only on pre-match data miss that noise.
Transparent baseline—advance to negative binomial models offline if needed.
Update λ minute-by-minute manually—no live feed here.
