Prop Bet Calculator
Quick edge check on yes/no style props.
Enter decimal odds and your estimated true probability.
Prop Bet Calculator
Adjust inputs to see updated results.
Table of Contents
How to Use This Calculator
Enter the posted decimal odds for “yes” and your subjective fair win probability. The tool reports expected profit per $1 staked on yes—positive means +EV at your model price.
Fair probability
Comes from research—injuries, usage, weather, etc.
Posted odds
The book’s decimal price for the yes side you are evaluating.
Edge readout
Linear in stake for small bets—scale mentally.
Two-way props
For no-side analysis, plug complementary probability or use both tools.
Edge per Dollar
EV/≈ p×(d−1) − (1−p)
Examples
Example 1 — Defaults
Odds 2.10, fair p = 0.50. Book implied ~47.6%—your model says coin flip; edge positive if your p is accurate.
Example 2 — Strong opinion
p = 0.60 vs decimal 2.00 → large per-dollar edge in the formula output.
Example 3 — Player props
See also player prop page for similar framing.
Frequently Asked Questions
You supply p directly—ensure yes/no probabilities sum sensibly for two-way markets.
Convert posted price to decimal before typing.
EV, Odds value.
Props often have low limits—edge per $1 may not scale to large stakes.
Same-game props correlate—do not treat as independent in parlays.
Your fair p should reflect de-vigged beliefs when possible.
